Afghanistan
Change is dependent on solid foundations.
Afghanistan’s government collapsed within 4 months of the announcement that U.S. troops would be withdrawn by September 11. The speed with which the Taliban has overtaken the country clearly has taken decision-makers by surprise. After all, the decision-makers had decided on an orderly withdrawal, with a timetable. They had a plan.
The finger-pointing has begun. From where I sit the biggest villain is hubris.
The egos are monumental. The wielding of power and money are always the focus. The root problems go back decades, back to British colonialism, Soviet invasion, U.S. involvement, and the inevitable involvement of intelligence sources to skew the outcome ‘the right way’. The fault lies with many, over almost 200 years. Yet, with apparently little understanding of history, and even less of social psychology and human behavior, actions are dictated from on high.
We know that the Trump administration negotiated for a May 1 withdrawal with the Taliban, which also tied the hands of the next administration in terms of policy - a poison pill. We know that the Biden administration decided to stretch that to September 11 for logistical reasons - and certainly for the optics of the 20th anniversary. Congress was split, of course, though now we can expect even those in favor of withdrawal to say they were already opposed, because pesky facts are to be ignored. We know that there have been doubts for over a decade that the Afghan military would be able to hold the line against Taliban fighters. Resistance has always fallen quickly when money has circulated or credible threats of violence against the military and their families are issued. We have ample evidence that many in the Taliban are operating out of deeply held beliefs, emotions which are highly resistant to logic and ‘advancement of society’ arguments, especially when a more beneficial alternative has not been delivered, or marketed effectively. A complex and toxic blend of strongly held religious beliefs, ongoing and devastating economic conditions, and horrific violence against those who resist has defeated the combined military might and political strategies. This time against the U.S., next time ??? With the mineral wealth of Afghanistan, there will be a next time.
“For two decades now, the Taliban movement has been slowly chipping away, village by village. It’s a very sophisticated kind of ground game grass-roots mobilization.” (Robert Crews, expert on Afghanistan at Stanford University)
This statement, and the fall of what the U.S. government believe Afghanistan should be, sums up all matter of social change.
If you have not convinced enough people of the value of change, you will fail.
The videos of people storming military jets trying to leave the country make it clear that not everyone wants to be under the rule of the Taliban. Afghanis are so desperate to leave Taliban rule that 3 million people have already left everything behind, paid traffickers, risked their lives - headed into a world where they are not wanted, because the option of staying is so horrific.
The U.S. made the classic mistake, replayed throughout history by any number of leaders and countries, of focusing on military might rather than changing the hearts and minds of the people. $36 billion a year spent on military action. Under $2 billion a year on development, and of the $10.4 billion pledged 2002-2008, only $5 billion was dispersed. By this graph, $3.6 billion to Afghanistan Security Forces Fund, and it looks to be a few million to Energy, Agriculture, Basic Health, Basic Education, Maternal and Child Health, Water Supply and Sanitation. These areas receive peanuts. ‘Conflict, Peace and Security’ is the big winner - and is the biggest failure, since there is only conflict, neither peace nor security. A lousy return on investment, if you ask me.
I’ll bet that if the emphasis were reversed, if the basic needs of Afghanis were being met by the U.S., and by the Afghani government, then we would not be seeing the implosion of the country. (though don’t get me started on the lobbying and corruption diverting even these measly sums) We would have seen a people whose lives were materially, and significantly, improved, willing to resist the Taliban. Likely even convincing Taliban fighters that the violence was not as attractive as home, family, and community. Instead, it was the Taliban who promised peace and security after repeated foreign invasions. The Taliban provided farmers with a lucrative cash crop to support their families. (Afghanistan is the largest producer of opium, and the Taliban earns money through taxes on farming, conversion to heroin and trading.)
I realize this is a hugely complex issue that certainly can’t be boiled down in one blog by one person, but the parallels between not just the defeat, but the total abandonment of the Afghan people over two centuries, is representative of so much that is done wrong in social change.
Peeling back the layers takes time. It takes listening. It takes actually hearing. It takes cultural understanding and tolerance. But if you don’t peel back the layers of any situation you would like to change, you will fail. It may be a temporary bandaid, like the illusion of control in Afghanistan for the last 20 years, but it will ultimately fail, with even more damaging fall-out.
Peeling back the layers means you find what really matters to people. If your cause is preventing drowning, but if you realize that the kids showing up for swim lessons are only eating one meal a day, you pivot and partner with an organization to provide food. Then you teach them to swim. If your cause is education, but you realize that girls are staying home during their period because they lack sanitary napkins, you provide the sanitary napkins and the girls stay in school.
Whatever you want to change, start with the roots. Look at Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. See if the basics are being met before you move onto the next level. It is possible to move between the levels, but it’s unlikely change will occur if you haven’t taken care of the basics.
Physiological needs - air, water, food, sex, sleep, health, clothes, shelter
Safety needs
Love and Social Belong needs
Esteem needs
Cognitive needs
Aesthetic needs
Self-actualization
Transcendence
The Taliban understood this. Imperfectly and violently, they did meet the first three, the foundations of the hierarchy. At least enough to gain the support they needed. The U.S. did not. They went straight for self-actualization, creation of a nation as defined by American values, bludgeoned by military might.
There is one additional variable. Women. I believe that the misogyny towards women exhibited by the Taliban, and pretty much every extreme religious group that I can think of, is the foundational layer of most social problems. Only now, after Afghanistan has fallen apart, does anyone seem to be noticing that the Afghan women and children are the biggest losers in this whole debacle. I’m betting that ‘women’s issues’ and ‘children’s issues’ were always viewed as fluffy programs to show we value women, not as the major strategic weapon they should be considered given their effectiveness. The Taliban is clear on their views of women - beatings, killings, withdrawal of education have already begun. Already women are being erased, figuratively and literally removed, with billboards painted over and female newscasters replaced. If change had focused on including women in at least 50% of the conversations and the change, I believe we would be seeing a very different outcome. Instead, we have destabilized a country, a region, and a people.
I see only one reason to hope for the Afghan people, especially the women and children. Enough have seen what is possible. Once seen, it can not be forgotten. It may take years, decades even, but for every activist killed, you plant the seed of activism in the heart of another. It’s up to us to nurture those seeds of change. As Martin Luther King Jr said, “The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice.” Understanding how to make change occur and be sustainable bends the arc faster.